Musharraf may be
made Scapegoat if Reaction is Fierce
Washington gives
quiet Approval of Fresh Polls in Pakistan
By
Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON
The Bush Administration appears reconciled to the prospects of
fresh elections in Pakistan as the Musharraf regime tries desperately
to put together an acceptable political face of parties and politicians
who could command a workable majority in Parliament and not evoke
a negative response in the US and the West.
Analysts
and sources close to the Administration say Islamabad has been
quietly told that if a favorable coalition was not possible, Musharraf
could scrap the entire elections and go for new polls within a
year.
It
was after positive signals were received from Washington about
cancellation of the polls, that Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider
and other cabinet ministers started talking about "going
back to the people for a reference," if no workable or acceptable
coalition was not formed before the holding of the inaugural Assembly
session.
Haider
had spoken about this possibility in Karachi at a news conference
and his remarks had surprised many analysts and politicians as
they amounted to blackmailing the elected representatives with
guns pointed to their head to hammer out a pro-Musharraf coalition.
This
US strategy sits well with Washington’s plans for an attack
on Iraq in the coming months during which the Bush Administration
would require solid support from as many friends in the Islamic
world as possible, Pakistan being in the fore front.
Washington
would also like to see a quiet and trouble free Pakistan during
its war on Iraq and this objective could only be achieved if General
Musharraf and his men could continue to call the shots after declaring
the October 10 elections as null and void.
Bush
strategists are not happy with the way General Musharraf has handled
the domestic situation as it had created a serious challenge to
the US interests and policies in Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan
where the war against Taliban and Al-Qaeda was still going on.
Analysts
said Washington was not prepared to see the religious parties
led by the MMA in any government positions, either in the Center
or the sensitive provinces of NWFP and Balochistan where the US
war on terrorism is still continuing.
Likewise
Bush advisers are also not very comfortable with Benazir Bhutto
returning to power in coalition with the individuals who form
the pro-Musharraf PML-Q, or the King’s Party as it is called.
Benazir
Bhutto is not being seen in a favorable light after the recent
disclosures about Pakistan-North Korean nuclear cooperation as
Washington believes it was during her tenure that this cooperation
started in a serious manner with Pakistan receiving the Nodong
missiles made by North Korea and obviously returning the favor
in some form or shape.
But
Washington analysts are not sure what kind of reaction a cancellation
of the elections would bring from the political parties and exercises
are currently being held to find out more about who may do what.
According
to one analyst Washington may not be too averse to the idea of
replacing General Musharraf with another military General who
promises to support the US policies but does not carry the heavy
political baggage which Musharraf has accumulated in three years
through some unwise and needless moves to consolidate his power.
This
line of thinking is based on the premise that if cancellation
of the elections creates a serious situation, Musharraf may ultimately
be made the scapegoat and someone else start with a clean slate
to repair the damage caused by his self-centered policies.
