Balochistan
is Potential Trouble Unless Musharraf Offers Concessions
By
Zeeshan Haider
ISLAMABAD,
Jan 15 : A tribal movement for greater political and economic
rights in Balochistan has the potential to explode into a major
insurgency unless the government offers concessions, commentators
say.
Ethnic
nationalists in Pakistan's resource-rich but poverty-stricken
Baluchistan have been waging a low-level battle against central
rule for decades, involving mostly ineffective small-scale bombings
and rocket attacks.
But
this month has seen a surge in activity, culminating in a bloody
attack on Tuesday that has cut off supplies from the country's
main gas field for days, disrupting industry and raising doubts
about the government's ability to maintain order.
The
clashes killed as many as 18 people and forced the government
to rush in additional troops to protect the vital gas fields.
"These
attacks show that there is a lot of discontent among Baluchis,"
said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a newspaper editor and expert on tribal
affairs. "It shows Baluch youth are again ready to take up
arms and fight for their rights."
Sparsely
populated Baluchistan is home to reserves of natural gas and oil
that provide for most of Pakistan's needs. It is also the site
a key infrastructure development project, the Gwadar sea port,
which is being built with the help of China.
The
exploitation of resources by the Pakistani government has long
been opposed by Baluchis who argue they are not reaping the benefits.
They fear projects like Gwadar will also benefit other ethnic
groups more than Baluchis.
The
resentment dates back to the creation of Pakistan in 1947 and
the region has seen several armed conflicts with the federal government,
including a bloody insurgency in the 1970s that was brutally crushed
by the military.
Baluchi
militants say the attack on the gas fields was retaliation for
the rape of a doctor in Baluchistan last month which they blamed
on security forces.
They
have also been worried by plans to build at least three more military
bases in the province, which they see as evidence of plans to
tighten rather than relax central control.
Sanaullah
Baluch, a spokesman of the Baluchistan National Party, a legal
group that says it has no links to the militants but shares their
aims, said natural resources, ports, shipping and security should
be controlled by the provincial government.
"We
oppose cantonments, we oppose the federal government sending troops.
We oppose colonial policies," he said.
Analysts
say the nationalists have been further alienated from the political
mainstream under the military-led government of President Pervez
Musharraf since 1999.
Nationalists
had shared power with civilian governments in the 1990s but were
effectively sidelined after pro-military groups forged a coalition
with an Islamic alliance to control the provincial assembly.
Evidence
of deteriorating security came in May when three Chinese technicians
working on the Gwadar port project were killed by a bomb claimed
by Baluch nationalists.
Baluchistan
has also seen a series of attacks in recent months by Islamic
extremists furious at Musharraf's support for the U.S.-led war
on terror and moves toward peace with India.
But
experts say chances are remote of cooperation between Islamic
militants and left-leaning Baluch nationalists.
Musharraf
has been incensed by the recent nationalist attacks and warned
he was willing to resort to force if necessary.
"It
isn't the 1970s when you can hit and run and hide in the mountains,"
he told the Baluchi militants. "This time you won't even
know what hit you."
Yet
analysts said Musharraf could not afford to resort to force, with
the military stretched chasing Islamic militants in the northwest
and needed for security against neighboring India.
The
Friday Times weekly said Musharraf needed instead to find
ways to accommodate Baluchi representatives in national politics,
a view echoed by commentator Ayaz Amir in the Dawn newspaper.
"If
1/40th of the ... flexibility shown towards India were shown towards
the Baluch people, Baluchistan would be Pakistan's most peaceful
province," he said.- Reuters
