Iran Signs Defence
Pact with India against Pakistan
Deafening Silence in Islamabad
over Biggest Foreign Policy Setback
By
Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON: Pakistan is stunned. The intense shrill of silence
is deafening. Not even the free media is talking about the issue
which is by far the most staggering failure of not only General
Pervez Musharraf but the entire military establishment. Apparently
the elected political leadership has also been told not to touch
the issue, not to raise national security concerns.
No
official spokesman, from General Musharraf to PM Jamali to Information
Minister Sheikh Rashid to Major General Rashid Qureshi to Foreign
Office’s Aziz Khan, have yet provided the nation any explanation
of how and why the brotherly, Islamic nation and a trusted friend
and ally of Pakistan, Iran, has turned into a strategic partner
and military ally of India, and shockingly and publicly so, against
Pakistan.
The
latest word on this sensitive subject has come from world renowned
Jane’s Defence Weekly, the authentic voice on strategic
and defence matters. And all JDW could say in its latest issue
was that Pakistan “was expected to respond to the signing
of India's recent accord with Iran, which would allow India the
use of Iranian military bases in the event of any outbreak of
tensions with Pakistan.” Can any one believe that this agreement
was signed more than one month ago and no one has yet been able
to respond in Islamabad.
What
has gone wrong with Pak-Iran relations? Iranian President just
recently visited Pakistan but while he was in Islamabad, Indian
and Iranian officials were finalizing the text of the defence
pact under which India can now use Iranian land and air space
and military bases against Pakistan. So what was General Musharraf
talking about with the Iranian President? Did he indicate that
his country was ready to sign a military pact against Pakistan?
What did General Musharraf say to him? What has annoyed Teheran
so much that the country which once allowed Pakistan to park most
of its air force and PIA aircraft during a war with India, is
now ready to provide the same facility to Pakistan’s enemies?
According
to the Jane’s Defence Weekly the Indo-Iran “pact had
shifted the strategic balance in South Asia and looked very much
like an encirclement of Pakistan by India.” Following the
pact “pressure on Pakistan's defences would be almost overwhelming,”
the magazine said.
The
pact was signed a week before the visit of Iranian President Muhammad
Khatami to India to join the celebrations for India's national
day on Jan 26. Signed in Tehran by the Indian Naval Chief and
the Iranian Minister of Defence, the pact marks a complete turnaround
by Iran, which used to be a close ally of Pakistan, JDW said.
It
said how the pact fitted in with India's defence relationship
with Israel was unclear, 'but the threat that could pose to Pakistan
is all too real. The pressure on Pakistan's defences would be
almost overwhelming. We expect Pakistan to respond. Much will
depend on the reaction of the Bush administration," the weekly
commented.
The
most obvious reason for this Iranian U-Turn, a phenomenon General
Musharraf is very familiar with, is Pakistan’s dilly dallying
on the issue of the Gas Pipeline through Pakistan to India, a
project which Teheran and New Delhi have been viewing as a major
strategic event that would change economic fortunes of both the
countries. Pakistan has been seen as a major bottleneck by New
Delhi, although Islamabad has been providing assurances.
Pakistani
Army’s utopian vision of conquering Kashmir thereby defeating
India and brandishing its nuclear sword every time things heat
up as result of its belligerency are now producing these catastrophic
results. It has now been established beyond any doubt that whenever
any political leadership tried to work for a face saving, middle
of the road compromise with India, the Pakistan Army, led by commandos
like General Musharraf, sabotaged those efforts. The Rajiv Gandhi
visit during Benazir Bhutto’s first tenure and Vajpayee’s
Lahore Bus Journey are two glaring examples.
Now
the Army itself is in control of the political and strategic landscape
and thus not only the Indians have refused to talk, they have
convinced Pakistan’s closest friends and allies that their
stand is correct and Pakistan Army cannot be trusted. Not just
on its assurances about its role in Kashmir but not even for a
project of huge economic interest to its neighbor and friend Iran.
In short Pakistan and its Army has been dumped by Iran in favor
of India.
Thus
the key issue is that no body believes in Pakistani President
Musharraf’s words. India is expected not to believe him
but when Iran publicly rebuffs the General, there can be no bigger
indictment of the army’s damaging role and influence on
the economic and national security of Pakistan.
A
deeper analysis would reveal that the Iranian shift has not come
out of the blue but has been in the works ever since Prime Minister
Vajpayee visited Teheran in April of 2001. A brief progress report
would include: Click to View Reports
-
Iran and India sign six bilateral agreements during visit by PM
Vajpayee who also addressed the Iranian Parliament.
-
On June 24, 2002 Iran's National Security Chief Hassan Rowhani
left Tehran for India for talks on bilateral security issues and
also the Kashmir dispute. During his trip, Rowhani met Vajpayee
and said: "Security cooperation between our two countries
was launched one year ago, but the current sensitive circumstances
require an expansion of this cooperation."
-
On Nov 9, 2002, India and Iran signed a joint statement expressing
commitment to promote and expand scientific and technological
cooperation between the two sides. The statement was signed by
Science and Technology Minister, Murli Manohar Joshi and the Iranian
Minister for Science, Research and Technology, Mostafa Moeen in
Tehran.
-
In December 2002, during President Khatami’s visit to Pakistan,
the Iranian President made it clear that it was for Pakistan to
remove the Indian apprehensions on the feasibility of the Gas
Pipeline project.
-
On January 5, 2003 Iranian Trade Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari,
Afghan Trade Minister Mostafa Kazemi and Indian Minister of State
for External Affairs Digvijay Singh signed two memorandums on
cooperation in the spheres of trade, economy and transportation.
The Memorandums provide for the increase in the level of trilateral
cooperation in economic and transportation areas and also in the
development of a joint trade policy and mutual investments.
-
Indian newspaper ‘The Hindu’ said on Jan 19, 2003
Iran had become an important factor in India's efforts to reorder
the geopolitics of its troubled Western neighborhood. New Delhi
in the past was wary of the close relations between Iran and Pakistan.
Now India sees its expanding cooperation with Iran as an instrument
that could help nudge Pakistan in the direction of political moderation
and regional economic integration.
-
The Indian-Iranian Defence Pact is signed in Teheran providing
for Iranian bases to India in case of a war with Pakistan.
-
On Jan 21, 2003 at a meeting in Tokyo, Afghan President Hamid
Karzai and the Indian Disinvestment Minister, Arun Shourie, discussed
the possibility of sending one million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan
through Iran. The issue came up in the light of Islamabad's refusal
to allow the wheat, under the World Food Program (WFP), from India
to Afghanistan via Pakistan.
- Iranian President Khatami visited New Delhi on Jan 23-26 and
the two countries signed signed seven agreements in which, according
to the Delhi Declaration: "All aspects of bilateral cooperation"
were included, ranging from economic exchanges to science and
technology, infotech, educational training, the reconstruction
of Afghanistan and terrorism. Specific agreements signed also
related to labour and social affairs, cultural exchange and urban
water management. On the issue of terrorism, the declaration said
that states "which aid, abet and directly support terrorism
should be condemned".
-
Vajpayee said during Khatami’s visit India and Iran had
agreed that a "mutually acceptable and stable arrangement
for the transportation of gas" needed to be found. "Iran
has gas and we want it," Vajpayee said. "But there are
some impediments in the middle which we are trying to remove.
We are working towards a mutually satisfactory agreement which
will be long lasting," he added without elaborating.
-
On Feb 11, Pakistan’s Information Minister announced Prime
Minister Jamali would visit Iran from Feb 15 but the visit never
took place.
-
On Feb 14, 2003 India and Iran started talks to finalize an agreement
on cooperation in dealing with terrorism, drug trafficking and
security issues. The discussions were held in Tehran between a
five-member Indian delegation, led by Home Secretary N. Gopalaswami,
the highest ranking bureaucrat in the home ministry, and an Iranian
team led by his counterpart Ali Asghar Ahmadi.
-
On Feb 20, 2003 India said it will bypass Pakistan as it pursues
a multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline project with Iran. Petroleum
Minister Ram Naik said the pipeline from Iran to India would bypass
Pakistan by going through the sea. He said he would travel to
Iran within three months to discuss the deal. "We have not
spoken to Pakistan on this and we are not going to talk to them,"
Naik told parliament. "We have to buy from Iran; there is
no proposal to get it overland. It can come through the sea route,"
he said.
Given
this developing scale of relations, where was Pakistan and its
leadership during all this time and what were they doing to ensure
that their vital national security interests were safeguarded
and Iran was not so frustrated that it may almost write off Pakistan
in favor of India.
Now
what is apparent is that Pakistan has been excluded from all Iran-Indian
dealings. Iran has even offered to multiply transit trade to Afghanistan.
India would be sending its wheat to Kabul again through Iran.
The axis against Pakistan is almost complete, the isolation confirmed.
What
can Pakistan do in such a scenario? The question has to be answered
by the military leadership which has been ruling the country and
driving it to the abyss. Loss of Iran is not something General
Musharraf can brush under the carpet. It would be unbelievable
for millions of Pakistanis to ever imagine Indians attacking Pakistan
from Iranian soil.
Only
a blundering and blind military dictatorship could have brought
the country to such a pass.
