Pakistan
Army unloading goods in Balochistan: Below Left: Arms seized on
Feb 28
The Stunning
Investigative Story on the Birth of Balochistan Liberation Army
By
Tariq Saeedi in Ashgabat, Sergi Pyatakov in Moscow, Ali Nasimzadeh
in Zahidan, Qasim Jan in Kandahar and SM Kasi in Quetta
MARCH
1: Deception and treachery. Live and let die. The ultimate zero
sum game. Repetition of bloody history: Call it what you may,
something is happening in the Pakistani province of Balochistan
that defies comprehension on any conventional scale.
Four correspondents and dozens of associates who collectively
logged more than 5000 kilometers during the past seven weeks in
pursuit of a single question – What is happening in Balochistan?
– have only been able to uncover small parts of the entire
picture.
However,
if the parts have any proportional resemblance to the whole, it
is a frightening and mind-boggling picture. Every story must start
somewhere. This story should conveniently have started on the
night of 7 January 2005 when gas installations at Sui were rocketed
and much of Pakistan came to almost grinding halt for about a
week. Or, we should have taken the night of 2 January 2005 as
the starting point when an unfortunate female doctor was reportedly
gang-raped in Sui. However, the appropriate point to peg this
story is January 2002 and we shall return to it in a minute.
Actually, the elements for the start of insurgency in Balochistan
had been put in place already and the planners were waiting for
a convenient catalyst to set things in motion. The gang-rape of
2 Jan, around which this sticky situation has been built, was
just the missing ingredient the planners needed.
Two former KGB officers explained that the whole phenomenon has
been assembled on skilful manipulation of circumstances. We shall
keep returning to their comments throughout this report.
As Pakistan and India continue to mend fences, as Iran, Pakistan
and India try to pool efforts to put a shared gas pipeline, as
Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan join hands to lay a natural
gas pipeline of great economic and strategic importance, as the
United States continues to laud the role of Pakistan as a frontline
nation in war against terrorism, as Chinese contractors forge
ahead with construction work in Gwadar port and on trans-Balochistan
highway, as the Pakistan government makes efforts to bring Balochistan
under the rule of law and eliminate safe havens for terrorists
and drug barons, as the whole region tries to develop new long-term
models to curb terrorism and bring prosperity to far flung areas,
there is a deadly game going on in the barren and hostile hills
of Balochistan. Liens are muddy; there are no clear-cut sectors
to distinguish friends from foes.
Right
in the beginning we would like to clarify that when we say Indians,
we mean some Indians and not the Indian government because we
don’t have any way of ascertaining whether the activities
of some Indian nationals in Pakistan represent the official policy
of their government or is it merely the adventurism of some individuals
or organizations. When we say Iranians or Afghans, we mean just
that: Some Iranians or Afghans. We don’t even know whether
the Iranian and Afghan players in Balochistan are trying to serve
the interests of their countries or whether their loyalties lie
elsewhere.
But – and it is a BUT with capital letters – when
we say Americans or Russians, we have reasons to suspect that
the American and Russian involvement in Balochistan is sanctioned,
at least in part, by Pentagon (if not White House) and Kremlin.
We would also like to acknowledge that the picture we have gathered
is far from complete and except for the explanatory comments of
two former KGB officials, we have no way of connecting the dots
in any meaningful sequence. For the sake of honesty, this story
should better remain abrupt and incomplete. The story we are going
to tell may sound a lot like cheap whodunit but that is what we
found out there.
Before zooming in to January 2002, let’s set the background.
We consulted Sasha and Misha, two former KGB officers who are
Afghanists – the veterans of Russo-Afghan war – and
they seem to know Balochistan better than most Pakistanis. Obviously,
Sasha and Misha are not their real names. They live on the same
street in one of the quieter suburbs of Moscow. Two bonds tie
them together in their retirement: While on active duty in KGB,
they were both frequent travelers to Balochistan during the Russo-Afghan
war where they were tasked to foment trouble in Pakistan; and
they are both wary of Vodka, the mandatory nectar of Russian cloak
and dagger community. They visit each other almost every day and
that is why it was easy to catch them together for long chats
over quantities of green tea and occasional bowls of Borsch.
We made more than a dozen visits to the single-bedroom flat of
Misha, where Sasha was also found more often than not, and we
picked their brains on Balochistan situation. As and when we unearthed
new information on Balochistan, we returned to Sasha and Misha
for comments.
As they told us, during the Russo-Afghan war, the Soviet Union
was surprised by the ability and resourcefulness of Pakistan to
generate a quick and effective resistance movement in Afghanistan.
To punish Pakistan and to answer back in the same currency, Kremlin
decided to create some organizations that would specialize in
sabotage activities in Pakistan.
One
such organization was BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army), the brainchild
of KGB that was built around the core of BSO (Baloch Students
Organization). BSO was a group of assorted left-wing students
in Quetta and some other cities of Balochistan. Misha and Sasha
can be considered among the architects of the original BLA.
The BLA they created remained active during the Russo-Afghan war
and then it disappeared from the surface, mostly because its main
source of funding – the Soviet Union – disappeared
from the scene. In the wake of 9-11, when the United States came
rushing to Afghanistan with little preparation and less insight,
the need was felt immediately to create sources of information
and action that should be independent of the Government of Pakistan.
As Bush peered into the soul of Putin and found him a good guy,
Rumsfeld also did his own peering into the soul of his Russian
counterpart and found him a good game. The result was extensive
and generous consultation by Russian veterans who knew more about
Afghanistan and Balochistan than the Americans could hope to find.
It was presumably agreed that as long as their interests did not
clash with each other directly, the United States (or at least
Pentagon) and Kremlin would cooperate with each other in Balochistan.
That brings us to January 2002. “Actually, most of the elements
were in place, though dormant, and it was not difficult for anyone
with sufficient resources to reactivate the whole thing,”
said Misha about the present-day BLA that is blamed for most of
the sabotage activities in Balochistan.
In January 2002, the first batch of ‘instructors’
crossed over from Afghanistan into Pakistan to set-up the first
training camp. That was the seed from which the present insurgency
has sprouted. It seemed like a modest effort back then.
Only two Indians, two Americans, and their Afghan driver-guide
were in a faded brown Toyota Hilux double cabin SUV that crossed
the border near Rashid Qila in Afghanistan and came to Muslim
Bagh in Pakistani province of Balochistan on 17 January 2002.
For this part of the journey, they used irregular trails. From
Muslim Bagh to Kohlu they followed the regular but less-frequented
roads.
In Kohlu they met with some Baloch youth and one American stayed
in Kohlu while two Indians and one American went to Dera Bugti
and returned after a few days. They spent the next couple of weeks
in intense consultations with some Baloch activists and their
mentors and then the work started for setting up a camp.
“Balach
was one of our good boys and even though I don’t know who
the present operators are, it can be said safely that Kohlu must
have been picked as the first base because of Balach,” said
Misha.
Balach Marri is the son of Nawab Khair Baksh Marri and he qualified
as an electronic engineer from Moscow. As was customary during
those times, any Baloch students in Russia were cultivated actively
and lavishly by the KGB. Balach was one of their success stories.
Because of intimate connections with India and Russia, it was
no surprise that Balach Marri was picked as the new head of the
revived BLA. The mountains between Kohlu and Kahan belong to the
Marris.
The first camp had some 30 youth and initial classes comprised
mainly of indoctrination lectures. The main subjects were: 1.
Baloch’s right of independence, 2. The Concept of Greater
Balochistan, 3. Sabotage as a tool for political struggle, 4.
Tyranny of Punjab and plight of oppressed nations, and 5. Media-friendly
methods of mass protest.
“Manuals,
guidelines and even lecture plans were available in the Kometit
[KGB] archives. Except for media interaction, they virtually followed
the old plans,” told Sasha.
As was logical, the small arms and sabotage training soon entered
the syllabus. First shipment of arms and ammunition was received
from Afghanistan but as the number of camps grew, new supply routes
were opened from India.
Kishangarh is a small Indian town, barely five kilometers from
Pakistan border where the provinces of Punjab and Sindh meet.
There is a supply depot and a training center there that maintains
contacts with militant training camps in Pakistan, including Balochistan.
There is also a logistics support depot near Shahgarh, about 90
kilometers from Kishangarh, that serves as launching pad for the
Indian supplies and experts.
These were unimportant stations in the past but they have gained
increasing importance since January 2002 when Balochistan became
the hub of a new wave of foreign activity.
The method of transfer from India to Balochistan is simple. Arms
and equipment such as Kalashnikov, heavy machine guns, small AA
guns, RPGs, mortars, land mines, ammunition and communication
equipment are transferred from Kishangarh and Shahgarh to Pakistani
side on camel back and then they are shifted to goods trucks,
with some legitimate cargo on top and the whole load is covered
by tarpaulin sheets. Arms and equipment are, as a rule, boxed
in CKD or SKD form.
The trucks have to travel only 140 or 180 kilometers to reach
Sui and a little more to reach Kohlu, a distance that can be covered
in a few hours only. This is most convenient route because transferring
anything from Afghanistan to these areas demands much sturdy vehicles
that must cover longer distance over difficult terrain.
The small arms and light equipment are mostly of Russian origin
because they are easily available, cheap, and difficult to trace
back to any single source.
This route is also handy for sabotaging the Pakistani gas pipelines
because the two main arteries of Sui pipe – Sui-Kashmore-Uch-Multan
and Sui-Sukkur – are passing, at some points, less than
45 kilometers from the Indian border. Whoever planned these camps
and the subsequent insurgency, had to obtain initial help in recruitment
and infrastructure from Indian RAW. “When
we first started the BLA thing, it was logical to ask for RAW
assistance because they have several thousands of ground contacts
in Pakistan, many of them in Balochistan,” said Sasha.
“Anyone
wanting to set shop in Pakistan needs to lean on RAW,” added
Misha. The number of camps increased with time and now there is
a big triangle of instability in Balochistan that has some 45
to 55 training camps, with each camp accommodating from 300 to
550 militants.
A massive amount of cash is flowing into these camps. American
defence contractors – a generic term applicable to Pentagon
operatives in civvies, CIA foot soldiers, instigators in double-disguise,
fortune hunters, rehired ex-soldiers and free lancers –
are reportedly playing a big part in shifting loads of money from
Afghanistan to Balochistan. The Americans are invariably accompanied
by their Afghan guides and interpreters.
Pay structure of militants is fairly defined by now. The ordinary
recruits and basic insurgents get around US $200 per month, a
small fortune for anyone who never has a hope of landing any decent
government job in their home towns. The section leaders get upward
of US $300 and there are special bonuses for executing a task
successfully.
Although no exact amount of reward could be ascertained for specific
tasks, one can assume that it must be substantial because some
BLA activists have lately built new houses in Dalbandin, Naushki,
Kohlu, Sibi, Khuzdar and Dera Bugti. Also, quite a few young Baloch
activists have recently acquired new, flashy SUVs.
Oddly enough, there is also an unusual indicator for measuring
the newfound wealth of some Baloch activists. In the marriage
ceremonies the dancing troupes of eunuchs and cross-dressers are
raking in much heavier shower of currency notes than before.
Based on the geographic spread of training camps, one can say
that there is a triangle of extreme instability in Balochistan.
This triangle can be drawn on the map by taking Barkhan, Bibi
Nani (Sibi) and Kashmore as three cardinal points.
There is another, larger, triangle that affords a kind of cushion
for the first triangle. It is formed by Naushki, Wana (in NWFP)
and Kashmore. Actually, landscape of Balochistan is such that
it offers scores of safe havens, inaccessible to outsiders.
Starting from the coastline, there are Makran Coastal Range, Siahan
Range, Ras Koh, Sultan Koh and Chagai Hills that are cutting the
land in east-west direction. In the north-south direction, we
find Suleman Range, Kithara Range, Palma Range and Central Ravi
Range to complete the task of forming deep and inaccessible pockets.
Few direct routes are possible between the coastline and upper
Balochistan. Only two roads connect Balochistan with the rest
of the country.
Apart from the triangles of instability that we have mentioned
there is an arc – a wide, slowly curving corridor –
of extensive activity. It is difficult to make out as to who is
doing what in that corridor.
Here is how to draw this arc-corridor on the map: Mark the little
Afghan towns of Shah Ismail and Ziarat Sultan Vais Qarni on the
map. Then mark the towns of Jalq and Kuhak in Iran. Now, draw
a slowly arching curve to connect Shah Ismail with Kuhak and another
curve to connect Ziarat Sultan Vais Qarni with Jalq. The corridor
formed by these two curves is the scene of a lot of diverse activities
and we have been able to gather only some superficial knowledge
about it. The towns of Dalbandin and Naushki where foreign presence
has become a matter of routine are located within this corridor.
Different entities are making different uses of this corridor.
Despite employing some local help, we could find very little about
the kind of activity that is bubbling in this corridor.
We found that the Indian consulate in Zahidan, Iran, has hired
a house off Khayaban Danishgah, near Hotel Amin in Zahidan. This
house is used for accommodating some people who cross over from
Afghanistan to Pakistan and from Pakistan to Iran through the
arched corridor we have described. But who are those people and
what are they doing, we could not find.
We also found that although Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards), the
trusted force directly under the control of Khamnei, are monitoring
Zahidan-Taftan road, there is no regular check post of Pasdaran
on the road between Khash and Jalq, making it easy for all kinds
of elements to cross here and there easily.
We also found that the border between Afghanistan and Iran is
mostly under the control of Pasdaran who come down hard on any
illegal border movement and that is why the arched corridor passing
through Pakistan is the favorite route for any individuals and
groups including American ‘defence contractors’ and
their Afghan collaborators who may have the need to go across
or near the border of Iran. Not surprisingly, part of this corridor
is used by Iranians themselves when they feel the need to stir
some excitement in Pakistan. Iranians also use the regular road
of Zahidan-Quetta when they can find someone with legal documents
as was the case with an Iranian who has business interests both
in Pakistan and Iran and who came to Quetta just before the start
of 7 Jan trouble. He has not been heard of since then.
There is a coastal connection that also provides free access for
elements in Dubai and Oman to connect with militants in Balochistan.
This is a loosely defined route but there are three main landing
points in Balochistan: Eastern lip of Gwater Bay that lies in
the Iranian territory but affords easy crossover to Pakistan through
unguarded land border; 2. Open space between Bomra and Khor Kalmat;
and 3. Easternmost shoulder of Gwadar East Bay.
Some Indians, a curious mix of businessmen and crime mafia, came
in fishing boats from either Dubai or Oman and landed on the Gwater
Bay in the Iranian territory before the start of 7 Jan eruptions.
From there they traveled to Khuzdar and then Quetta where they
met with some Baloch militants. It is rumored in those areas that
the Indians came with heavy amounts of cash but there was no way
of verifying it. They were escorted both ways by some Sarawani
Balochs who run their own fishing vessels.
Simultaneously, there were reports from our Washington correspondent
that some ‘sources’ in Pentagon had been trying to
‘leak’ the story to the media that Americans and Israelis
were carrying joint reccee operations inside Iran and for that
purpose they were using Pakistani soil as launching point. The
lead was finally picked and disseminated by Seymour Hersh of The
New Yorker.
However, from our own observations in the area we could not confirm
this report although there is a possibility that the curving corridor
that we have identified may have been used by the Americans and
Israelis to travel from Afghanistan into Pakistan and then into
Iran and back for this purpose although this is mere speculation,
based on the movement of foreigners in this area, and we can neither
confirm nor deny the substance of this report.
Also, there was some buzz, as reported by our correspondent in
New Delhi, that some high circles were questioning the wisdom
of two-faced policy of engaging Islamabad in peace dialogue while
at the same time supporting insurgent activity in Balochistan.
It was also not clear as to why Iran would be interested in stirring
trouble in Balochistan when it was faced by an imminent war from
the American side and it needed all the allies it could muster
on its side and one of those allies could possibly be Pakistan.
It
was also difficult to reconcile Iranian involvement in Balochistan
with the fact that Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, that is a
crucial project for Iran, was in the final stages of negotiation
and there seemed no logical point in sending mixed signals by
creating difficulties in Balochistan.
These were some of the questions that we took to Misha and Sasha
and here is the explanation they gave. Their answers came in bits
and pieces but we have reconstructed their replies in the form
of one coherent interview:
Question:
What was the purpose of Russian invasion of Afghanistan?
Misha:
The Soviet Union was not in love with Afghanistan itself and by
now everyone must have understood it. We, or at least our leaders,
wanted a convenient corridor to the warm waters of the Indian
Ocean -- the idea was to first establish full control in Kabul
and from there to raise the double-bogey of Pakhtunistan and Greater
Balochistan and try to detach at least a part of Balochistan from
Pakistan and to either merge it as a new province of Afghanistan
or to create a new country that should be under the firm control
of Moscow. That would have solved most of the problems facing
Kremlin.
Question: When you helped create BLA back in the 1980’s,
what objectives did you have in mind?
Sasha
and Misha: It was simply an instrument to create
problems in Pakistan. There were no ideological reasons –
it was merely a pragmatic solution for a strategic problem.
Question:
Who could have revived BLA after so many years of inactivity?
Misha:
Most likely, Pentagon. With good lot of support from Kremlin.
You should keep in mind that reviving such an organization is
a tricky task and it needs active support from a number of players.
Pentagon and Kremlin would not be able to do much without some
help from RAW that has hundreds of active contacts all over Balochistan.
Russia could have helped negotiate the involvement of Balach Marri
in the project.
Sasha:
RAW must have jumped at the chance because last
July the ‘discretionary grants’ budget [a euphemism
for espionage fund] was increased by 700% in the Indian consulates
in Kandahar, Jalalabad and Zahidan.
Misha:
Yes, discretionary grants are not subject to central audit and
the station chief can do what he wants with it.
Sasha:
Balach possibly came to head the revived BLA through Russian facilitation
but you cannot say the same for Sardar Ataullah Mengal. He returned
from his self imposed exile in London and established his headquarters
in Kohlu. Was it a mere coincidence? I don’t think so. In
all probability, he is the American man to keep a check on Balach
because Americans can never fully trust Russians.
Question:
From your comments it appears that Balach and Mengal are heading
the resurrected BLA and the BLA has been revived by the Americans
and Russians to create trouble in Balochistan but could you give
us any coherent reasons for going to such great lengths for disturbing
Pakistan that is supposed to be a frontline ally of the United
States on its war against terrorism?
Misha
and Sasha: [Misha laughed so hard that tears came
to his eyes while Sasha merely kept smiling in an absentminded
way] – Frontline ally? Are you kidding? Americans are using
Pakistan and Pakistanis would soon find it out if they have not
already. Americans don’t need that kind of allies and they
have made it abundantly clear for anyone who can read their policy
goals correctly. Let them deal with Iran and you would see. If
there can be any desirable American ally in that region, that
is Iran – Iran under a different regime, and they are working
to that end. Except for Balochistan, the rest of Pakistan is useless
for them.
Question: It is still not clear from your answer as
to what do the Pentagon and Kremlin hope to achieve by stirring
trouble in Balochistan?
Sasha:
Americans have two long-term policy objectives in that region:
First, create a safe and reliable route to take all the energy
resources of Central Asia to the continental United States, and
second, to contain China.
Misha:
Balochistan offers the shortest distance between the Indian ocean
and the Central Asia, that is to say, shortest distance outside
of the Gulf. The moment the conditions are ripe, Americans would
like to take all the oil and gas of Central Asia to Gwadar or
Pasni and from there to the United States.
Question: If the Americans are interested in creating
safe channel for shipping energy resources through Balochistan,
why would they encourage trouble there?
Misha:
That is for now. By inciting trouble, they would effectively discourage
Trans-Afghan Pipeline or any other project that is intended for
sending Central Asian resources to South Asia. They are not interested
in strengthening the South Asian economies by allowing them to
obtain sensibly priced oil and gas. They would be more interested
in taking all they can to their own country and let everyone else
starve if that is the choice.
Sasha:
The Americans would also like to discourage China
from entering into more development projects in Balochistan than
it already has. By developing the port and roads in Balochistan,
China is ultimately helping itself by creating a convenient conduit
for commerce that would connect China concurrently with Central
Asia, South Asia, and all-weather Balochistan ports. The space
is limited – where China gains, America loses, and where
America gains, China loses.
Questions:
OK. This sounds plausible. But what interest could Russia have
in helping Pentagon in this trouble-Balochistan project?
Sasha:
Russia has its own policy goals and as far as the present phase
of creating trouble in Balochistan is concerned, American and
Russian goals are not in conflict with each other. Russia wants
to maintain its monopoly over all the energy resources of Central
Asia. At present, the Central Asian countries are dependent entirely
on Russia for export of their gas project succeeds, it would open
the floodgates of exodus. Central Asian countries would understandably
rush to the market that pays 100% in cash and pays better price
than Russia. It is therefore very clear that by keeping Balochistan
red hot, Russia can hope to discourage Trans-Afghan pipeline or
any other similar projects. Russian economy in its present form
is based on the monopoly of Gazprom and if Gazprom goes under,
so will the Russian economy at some stage.
Question: So far, there is some in sense what you
have said but how would explain Indian involvement in the Balochistan
revolt?
Sasha:
India has its own perceived or real objectives. For instance,
India would go to great lengths to prevent Pakistan from developing
a direct trade and transportation route with Central Asia because
it would undermine the North-South corridor that goes through
Iran. Also, while the acute shortage of energy may have compelled
India to extend limited cooperation to Pakistan, the preferable
project from Indian point of view still remains the Iran-Pakistan-India
gas pipeline.
Misha: Moreover, you cannot ignore the
fact that India is preparing to use Afghanistan as its main artery
system to connect with Central Asia and it would not allow Pakistan
to share this sphere if it can.
Question: What about Iran? Why should Iran be a party
to it?
Misha:
Iran has incurred great expenses to develop Chah Bahar, the port
that is supposed to be the Iranian answer to Pakistani ports of
Gwadar and Pasni. Iran has also done lot of work to create excellent
road link between Herat and Chah Bahar. All this would go to waste
if Pakistani route comes on line because it is shorter and offers
quick commuting possibilities between Central Asia and Indian
Ocean.
Sasha: At the same time you need to
allow certain margin of unreliability when dealing with Iran.
You cannot be sure whether they mean what they are saying and
you cannot be sure whether they would keep their promises. They
do what suits them best and to hell with any commitments. I am
sorry but that is how I judge Iran.
Question:
While both of you have given some explanation of American, Russian,
Iranian and Indian involvement in Balochistan, what is the role
of Afghanistan?
Sasha:
There are many influential circles in Afghanistan that are deadly
opposed to Pakistan for one reason or the other. While Afghanistan
as a country may not be harboring any ill will against Pakistan,
it is difficult to rule out the possibility that some power circles
would not be inclined to damage Pakistan wherever they can. It
is clear from the recent developments that as India, Iran and
Afghanistan have made great strides to form some kind of economic,
trade and transportation alliance, all efforts have been made
to exclude Pakistan from any such deal.
Question:
While BLA is being used by a number of power players for their
own objectives, does it have any potential, even as a byproduct,
to serve the cause of Baloch people?
Misha
and Sasha: BLA is not the only fish in the pond.
There is Baloch Ittehad and there is PONAM and there is lots of
small fry out there. But none of them can be expected to do any
good to the Balochi people because the command this time is mostly
in the hands of Baloch Sardars and they have no past record of
bringing any benefit to their own people. If anything, they are
known to sell their own people down the river.
[Misha thumbed through a dog-eared file and read]
Sardar Mehrulla Marri sold all mineral and petroleum rights of
Khatan region to the British government in 1885 for a paltry sum
of Rs. 200 per month. There was no time limit to this agreement
– it was, as they say, in perpetuity.
In 1861, Jam of Bela allowed the British government to put a telegraph
line through his territory, thus helping substantially the British
government in consolidating its control over large areas of Balochistan.
He received less than Rs. 900 per month for this disservice to
his own people and took the responsibility to safeguard the telegraph
line. In 1883, the Khan of Kalat sold the Quetta district and
adjoining territories to the British government. This was an outright
sale. The agreement that was signed in Dasht, included the provision
that the heirs and successors of Khan of Kalat would also be bound
by the same agreement. He received annual grant of Rs. 25000 for
selling the most attractive part of Balochistan to the British
government.
In the same year, the British government paid Rs. 5500 to the
Bugti Sardar for his cooperation although it was not specified
as to what kind of cooperation he extended to the British government.
While the Baloch Sardars were enthusiastically selling Balochistan
to the British government, there was no support to the idea of
Pakistan whereas the ordinary Balochs gave full approval for Pakistan.
Any positive development in Balochistan would go against the interests
of Sardars and only a fool would expect them to do anything for
the good of their people. Bear in mind that Marri and Mengal Sardars
first stood up against the Pakistan government when the law was
passed to abolish Sardari system in Balochistan to free the ordinary
Balochs from the clutches of their tribal leaders.
Question:
The way the things are progressing in Balochistan, what could
be the likely outcome?
Misha:
If no strong action is taken for another few months, the result
could be bifurcation of Pakistan.
Question: Is that the only likely outcome?
Misha:
No. In fact, that is the farthest possible scenario but that could
eventually happen if Pakistan fails to assess, analyze and address
the situation quickly. For example, I have yet to see any Pakistani
effort to contact the ordinary Balochs. They are still trying
to woo the same Sardars who are living on the blackmail money
since the creation of Pakistan.
Sasha: I am surprised at the way Pakistan
goes about tackling this problem. During my few years in Afghanistan
when I was engaged with Balochistan, I found that while Baloch
Sardars would sell their loyalties and anything else at the drop
of a hat, ordinary Balochs are stupidly patriotic. They are hard
to buy and harder to manipulate. If I were a Pakistan government
functionary, I would gather enough ordinary, educated Balochs
to counter the Sardar influence and deflate this whole insurgency
balloon.
Question:
Both of you were, let’s say, among the developers of the
original BLA. Do you find any differences between the original
and the present BLA?
Misha
and Sasha: Plenty. Original BLA was mostly led by
the young people and Baloch Sardars had very little to do with
it but the present BLA is concentrated in the hands of Sardars.
The present movement in Balochistan, led by BLA, PONAM and Baloch
Ittehad is a mismatched concoction of ancient and modern.
They are trying to run a modern media campaign but there are crucial
gaps in that effort. Ours were different times and we could do
without media support. They have created a list of Pakistani journalists
who are supposed to be sympathetic to any move against the government
and they are feeding them daily a mixture of truth and lies, a
practice that has been perfected by the Pentagon.
They managed to bring some Baloch women in Dera Bugti but the
results would be little if they cannot repeat the performance
in most other areas of Balochistan.
They have built their campaign around a single incident –
the Sui gang-rape – and if the Government is smart enough,
it would hang the real culprits and ask the victim of the rape
to announce publicly that she was satisfied with the justice meted
out to the criminals and that would take all the wind out of the
sails of the BLA campaign. A real hard campaign needs to be built
around much broader and hard to solve issues.
Question:
Hypothetically speaking, if the Pakistan government asked your
advice, what would you suggest?
Sasha:
The options are few. They should abolish Sardari
system immediately and crack down powerfully on the private armies.
As far as I know, the constitution of Pakistan does not allow
Sardari system and private armies and there would be no legal
questions if those laws are implemented with the full help of
state power.
Misha:
They should involve broadest possible range of ordinary Balochs
in the dialogue. The can find enough educated youth in Marri and
Mengal tribes to match the influence of tribal leaders. They should
also allow the fragments of Bugti tribe to return to their ancestral
lands and that would be enough to calm down the ageing and eccentric
Bugti who pretends to be the leader of that tribe.
Sasha:
Pakistan government should hasten the development process in the
province because it would open job opportunities and that would
allow the escape hatch to ordinary Balochs to distance themselves
from their leaders.
Misha:
They should try to cut down the sources and channels of supply
of arms and cash to insurgents.
This
composite report was done by News Central Asia, a private news
agency of Turkmenistan. http://www.newscentralasia.com/index.php
