Latest
CIA Report says Pakistani Nukes Can be Stolen by Terrorists
Special
SAT Report
WASHINGTON,
February 14: Use of stolen or purchased nuclear weapons from Pakistan
or Russia by terrorists cannot be ruled out within the next 15
years, the latest CIA report prepared by the prestigious nerve
center of strategic thinking in the US intelligence community,
the National Intelligence Council (NIC), reveals.
The
119-Page Report is issued every 5 years and was declassified by
the CIA in December 2004.
“Terrorists
will continue to seek to acquire fissile material in order to
construct a nuclear weapon. Concurrently, they can be expected
to continue attempting to purchase or steal a weapon, particularly
in Russia or Pakistan. Given the possibility that terrorists could
acquire nuclear weapons, the use of such weapons by extremists
before 2020 cannot be ruled out,” the report titled "Mapping
the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's
2020 Project," says. It is available on the
CIA's Web site (Link given below). The two previous reports were
issued in 1995 and 2000.
To
launch the NIC 2020 Project, the NIC brought together some 25
leading outside experts from a wide variety of disciplines and
backgrounds in November 2003 to engage in a broad-gauged discussion
with Intelligence Community analysts. Experts of the UN’s
Millennium Project, the RAND Corporation’s Center for Longer
Range Global Policy, Princeton and other Universities were invited
to a series of seminars and conferences, the Report explains.
NIC
also surveyed and studied various methodologies and reviewed a
number of recent “futures” studies. Besides convening
a meeting of counterparts in the UK, Canada, Australia, and New
Zealand to learn their thinking, NIC organized six regional conferences
in countries on four continents — one in the United Kingdom,
South Africa, Singapore, and Chile, two in Hungary — to
solicit the views of foreign experts from a variety of backgrounds
— academics, business people, government officials, members
of nongovernmental organizations and other institutions —
who could speak authoritatively on the key drivers of change and
conceptualize broad regional themes.
Numerous
organizations and individuals were consulted on the substantive
aspects of this study, as well as on methodologies and approaches
for thinking about the future, the report said.
The
report is a comprehensive overview of what scenarios may develop
in the next 15 years and even some nightmare fictional situations
have been projected one of which includes the re-establishment
of an Islamic Caliphate and a fictional letter written by the
grandson of Osama bin Laden mapping Islamic strategies in year
2020.
The 10-Page Executive Summary of the report says at no time since
the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the
shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state
of flux.
In
Asia it predicts although a military confrontation between China
and Taiwan would derail Beijing’s efforts to gain acceptance
as a regional and global power, we cannot discount such a possibility.
Events such as Taiwan’s proclamation of independence could
lead Beijing to take steps it otherwise might want to avoid, just
as China’s military buildup enabling it to bring overwhelming
force against Taiwan increases the risk of military conflict.
“India
and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid
by triggering a conflict. But nationalistic feelings run high
and are not likely to abate. Under plausible scenarios Pakistan
might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian
conventional forces, particularly given Pakistan’s lack
of strategic depth.”
Other
significant characteristics include: the rise of new powers, new
challenges to governance, and a more pervasive sense of insecurity,
including terrorism. As we map the future, the prospects for increasing
global prosperity and the limited likelihood of great power conflict
provide an overall favorable environment for coping with what
are otherwise daunting challenges
It
says the most terrorist attacks will continue to employ primarily
conventional weapons, incorporating new twists to keep counterterrorist
planners off balance. Terrorists probably will be most original
not in the technologies or weapons they employ but rather in their
operational concepts - i.e., the scope, design, or support arrangements
for attacks.
One such concept that is likely to continue is a large number
of simultaneous attacks, possibly in widely separated locations.
While vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices will remain popular
as asymmetric weapons, terrorists are likely to move up the technology
ladder to employ advanced explosives and unmanned aerial vehicles.
“The
religious zeal of extremist Muslim terrorists increases their
desire to perpetrate attacks resulting in high casualties. Historically,
religiously inspired terrorism has been most destructive because
such groups are bound by few constraints.
“The
most worrisome trend has been an intensified search by some terrorist
groups to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Our greatest concern
is that these groups might acquire biological agents or less likely,
a nuclear device, either of which could cause laboratory could
well be the size of a household kitchen, and the weapon built
there could be smaller than a toaster.
Terrorist
use of biological agents is therefore likely, and the range of
options will grow. Because the recognition of anthrax, smallpox
or other diseases is typically delayed, under a “nightmare
scenario” an attack could be well under way before authorities
would be cognizant of it.
“The
use of radiological dispersal devices can be effective in creating
panic because of the public’s misconception of the capacity
of such attacks to kill large numbers of people. With advances
in the design of simplified nuclear weapons, terrorists will continue
to seek to acquire fissile material in order to construct a nuclear
weapon.
“Countries
without nuclear weapons, especially in the Middle East and Northeast
Asia, may decide to seek them as it becomes clear that their neighbors
and regional rivals already are doing so.
“The
assistance of proliferators, including former private entrepreneurs
such as the AQ Khan network, will reduce the time required for
additional countries to develop nuclear weapons.
“Concurrently,
they can be expected to continue attempting to purchase or steal
a weapon, particularly in Russia or Pakistan. Given the possibility
that terrorists could acquire nuclear weapons, the use of such
weapons by extremists before 2020 cannot be ruled out. We expect
that terrorists also will try to acquire and develop the capabilities
to conduct cyber attacks to cause physical damage to computer
systems and to disrupt critical information networks.
“The
United States and its interests abroad will remain prime terrorist
targets, but more terrorist attacks might forced, large-scale
expulsions of populations—are particularly likely to generate
migration and massive, intractable humanitarian needs.”
“Some
internal conflicts, particularly those that involve ethnic groups
straddling national boundaries, risk escalating into regional
conflicts. At their most extreme, internal conflicts can produce
a failing or failed state, with expanses of territory and populations
devoid of effective
governmental control. In such instances, those territories can
become sanctuaries for transnational terrorists (like Al-Qaeda’ida
in Afghanistan) or for criminals and drug cartels (such as in
Colombia).
Talking
about rising powers and possibilities of conflict, the NIC report
says: “Even if conflict would break out over Taiwan or between
India and Pakistan, outside powers as well as the primary actors
would want to limit its extent. Additionally, the growing dependence
on global financial and trade networks increasingly will act as
a deterrent to conflict among the great powers - the US, Europe,
China, India, Japan and Russia.
“This
does not eliminate the possibility of great power conflict, however.
The absence of effective conflict resolution mechanisms in some
regions, the rise of nationalism in some states, and the raw emotions
on both sides of key issues increase the chances for miscalculation.
“Although
a military confrontation between China and Taiwan would derail
Beijing’s efforts to gain acceptance as a regional and global
power, we cannot discount such a possibility. Events such as Taiwan’s
proclamation of independence could lead Beijing to take steps
it otherwise might want to avoid, just as China’s military
buildup enabling it to bring overwhelming force against Taiwan
increases the risk of military conflict.
“India
and Pakistan appear to understand the likely prices to be paid
by triggering a conflict. But nationalistic feelings run high
and are not likely to abate. Under plausible scenarios Pakistan
might use nuclear weapons to counter success by the larger Indian
conventional forces, particularly given Pakistan’s lack
of strategic depth.
“Should
conflict occur that involved one or more of the great powers,
the consequences would be significant.
Discussing
emergence of new global players the NIC report says: “The
likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new
major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany
in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early
20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape,
with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous
two centuries.
“In
the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the American
Century, the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led
by China and India, comes into its own. A combination of sustained
high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large
populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in
economic and political power for both countries.
“Barring
an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or any major
upheavals in these countries, the rise of these new powers is
a virtual certainty. Yet how China and India exercise their growing
power and whether they relate cooperatively or competitively to
other powers in the international system are key uncertainties.
“The
economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could
surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020; Indonesia’s
economy could also approach the economies of individual European
countries by 2020.”
“By
most measures — market size, single currency, highly skilled
work force, stable democratic governments, and unified trade bloc
—an enlarged Europe will be able to increase its weight
on the international scene. Europe’s strength could be in
providing a model of global and regional governance to the rising
powers. But aging populations and shrinking work forces in most
countries will have an important impact on the continent. Either
European countries adapt their work forces, reform their social
welfare, education, and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant
populations (chiefly from Muslim countries), or they face a period
of protracted economic stasis.
“Japan
faces a similar aging crisis that could crimp its longer run economic
recovery, but it also will be challenged to evaluate its regional
status and role. Tokyo may have to choose between “balancing”
against or “bandwagoning” with China.
“Meanwhile,
the crisis over North Korea is likely to come to a head sometime
over the next 15 years. Asians’ lingering resentments and
concerns over Korean unification and cross-Taiwan Strait tensions
point to a complicated process for achieving regional equilibrium.
Russia
has the potential to enhance its international role with others
due to its position as a major oil and gas exporter. However,
Russia faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth
rates, poor medical care, and a potentially explosive AIDS situation.
“To
the south, it borders an unstable region in the Caucasus and Central
Asia, the effects of which—Muslim extremism, terrorism,
and endemic conflict—are likely to continue spilling over
into Russia. While these social and political factors limit the
extent to which Russia can be a major global player, Moscow is
likely to be an important partner both for the established powers,
the United States and Europe, and for the rising powers of China
and India.
It
says: “China and India are well positioned to become technology
leaders, and even the poorest countries will be able to leverage
prolific, cheap technologies to fuel—although at a slower
rate—their own development.
Discussing
new challenges to governance, the NIC says the nation-state will
continue to be the dominant unit of the global order, but economic
globalization and the dispersion of technologies, especially information
technologies, will place enormous new strains on governments.
Growing
connectivity will be accompanied by the proliferation of virtual
communities of interest, complicating the ability of states to
govern. The Internet in particular will spur the creation of even
more global movements, which may emerge as a robust force in international
affairs.
“In
particular, political Islam will have a significant global impact
leading to 2020, rallying disparate ethnic and national groups
and perhaps even creating an authority that transcends national
boundaries. A combination of factors—youth bulges in many
Arab states, poor economic prospects, the influence of religious
education, and the Islamization of such institutions as trade
unions, nongovernmental organizations, and political parties—will
ensure that political Islam remains a major force.
“Outside
the Middle East, political Islam will continue to appeal to Muslim
migrants who are attracted to the more prosperous West for employment
opportunities but do not feel at home in what they perceive as
an alien and hostile culture.
“Regimes
that were able to manage the challenges of the 1990s could be
overwhelmed by those of 2020. Contradictory forces will be at
work: authoritarian regimes will face new pressures to democratize,
but fragile new democracies may lack the adaptive capacity to
survive and develop.
“The
so-called “third wave” of democratization may be partially
reversed by 2020—particularly among the states of the former
Soviet Union and in Southeast Asia, some of which never really
embraced democracy. Yet democratization and greater pluralism
could gain ground in key Middle Eastern countries which thus far
have been excluded from the process by repressive regimes.
On
the issue of insecurity, the NIC says: “ We foresee a more
pervasive sense of insecurity — which may be as much based
on psychological perceptions as physical threats — by 2020.
“Weak
governments, lagging economies, religious extremism, and youth
bulges will align to create a perfect storm for internal conflict
in certain regions.
“Although
a leveling off point has been reached where we can expect fewer
such conflicts than during the last decade, the continued prevalence
of troubled and institutionally weak states means that such conflicts
will continue to occur. Some internal conflicts, particularly
those that involve ethnic groups straddling national boundaries,
risk escalating into regional conflicts.
“At
their most extreme, internal conflicts can result in failing or
failed states, with expanses of territory and populations devoid
of effective governmental control. Such territories can become
sanctuaries for transnational terrorists (such as Al-Qaeda in
Afghanistan) or for criminals and drug cartels (such as in Colombia).
On
International Terrorism the NIC says: “The key factors that
spawned international terrorism show no signs of abating over
the next 15 years. Facilitated by global communications, the revival
of Muslim identity will create a framework for the spread of radical
Islamic ideology inside and outside the Middle East, including
Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Western Europe, where religious
identity has traditionally not been as strong.
This
revival has been accompanied by a deepening solidarity among Muslims
caught up in national or regional separatist struggles, such as
Palestine, Chechnya, Iraq, Kashmir, Mindanao, and southern Thailand,
and has emerged in response to government repression, corruption,
and ineffectiveness. Informal networks of charitable foundations,
madrassas, hawalas, and other mechanisms will continue
to proliferate and be exploited by radical elements; alienation
among unemployed youths will swell the ranks of those vulnerable
to terrorist recruitment.
“We
expect that by 2020 Al-Qaeda’ida will be superceded by similarly
inspired Islamic extremist groups, and there is a substantial
risk that broad Islamic movements akin to Al-Qaeda will merge
with local separatist movements. Information technology, allowing
for instant connectivity, communication, and learning, will enable
the terrorist threat to become increasingly decentralized, evolving
into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals that
do not need a stationary headquarters to plan and carry out operations.
“Training
materials, targeting guidance, weapons know-how, and fund-raising
will become virtual i.e. online. Terrorist attacks will continue
to primarily employ conventional weapons, incorporating new twists
and constantly adapting to counterterrorist efforts. Terrorists
probably will be most original not in the technologies or weapons
they use but rather in their operational concepts—i.e.,
the scope, design, or support arrangements for attacks.
Strong
terrorist interest in acquiring chemical, biological, radiological
and nuclear weapons increases the risk of a major terrorist attack
involving WMD. Our greatest concern is that terrorists might acquire
biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of
which could cause mass casualties.
Projecting
the possible futures scenarios, its says: “In this era of
great flux, we see several ways in which major global changes
could take shape in the next 15 years, from seriously challenging
the nation-state system to establishing a more robust and inclusive
globalization.
Four
fictional scenarios have been developed in the report which were
extrapolated from the key trends discuss in it. These scenarios
are not meant as actual forecasts, but they describe possible
worlds upon whose threshold we may be entering, depending on how
trends interweave and play out:
•
Davos World provides an illustration
of how robust economic growth, led by China and India, over the
next 15 years could reshape the globalization process—giving
it a more non-Western face and transforming the political playing
field as well.
•
Pax Americana takes a look at how US
predominance may survive the radical changes to the global political
landscape and serve to fashion a new and inclusive global order.
•
A New Caliphate provides an example
of how a global movement fueled by radical religious identity
politics could constitute a challenge to Western norms and values
as the foundation of the global system.
•
Cycle of Fear provides an example of
how concerns about proliferation might increase to the point that
large-scale intrusive security measures are taken to prevent outbreaks
of deadly attacks, possibly introducing an Orwellian world.
“Of
course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible
futures that may develop over the next 15 years, but the wide
range of possibilities we can imagine suggests that this period
will be characterized by increased flux, particularly in contrast
to the relative stasis of the Cold War era.
“The
scenarios are not mutually exclusive: we may see two or three
of these scenarios unfold in some combination or a wide range
of other scenarios.”
For
the complete 119 Page NIC Report Click here. The Report is in
PDF Format
